Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
